The temporary results of the recent legislative elections are consistent with the survey conducted prior to the event. That survey placed the three major parties in the top positions - the Democratic Party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party.The final result to be announced by the General Elections Commission (KPU) in a month is no longer interesting as the majority of seats in the House of Representatives will not deviate from the quick count result. The hottest topic now is potential coalition formations and presidential/vice presidential candidates. However, of the top three parties, Golkar faces the biggest dilemma.
Less than a week after a statement made by Ahmad Mubarok, the deputy chairman of the Democratic Party, claiming that Golkar would win only 2.5 percent of votes, Golkar received strong support in the election and confirmed Jusuf Kalla (JK) will run for president.
Although Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has apologized to Golkar about the unfortunate "slip-of-the-tongue incident", Golkar claims the Democratic Party has made an unforgivable mistake.
Political observers have commented that the decision by Golkar to reject the apology is an emotional rather than a logical decision. After the declaration, JK actively met with other party figures, including Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Golkar currently has around 14 to 15 percent of the votes, a significant drop from the 2004 election where Golkar won the election and gained 22 percent of the votes. By the latest election results, it will be not easy for Golkar to seek a partnership if JK remains determined to be the presidential candidate as mandated by the national meeting. Let's tinker with the pairing game that soon will be demonstrated by parties and party figures in coming weeks.
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For JK, it is impossible to ask Megawati to be his running mate since Megawati is aiming for the number one seat of RI. The PKS, the fourth ranked party, would only have the party patron Hidayat Nur Wahid (HNW). But it's unlikely for JK to pick him for his running mate if JK has learned from the last presidential election.
In 2004, Wiranto picked Solahuddin Wahid and Megawati picked Hasyim Muzadi - both were prominent figures of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and both Wiranto and Megawati failed. Thus, if JK picks HNW thinking that HNW will attract votes from PKS loyalists, then he might be wrong. People know that Solahuddin, Hasyim and HNW are religious leaders, not political leaders.
The remaining figures likely to be approached are Prabowo and Wiranto. However, this is not a simple choice because historically both come from Golkar. What is the point? They have the same color and the same root. Apart from this, both of them are being approached by Megawati, and if they are willing to downgrade their dream to have a second RI seat, they might tend toward Megawati rather than JK as a running mate.
With a strong position based on the quick count result so far, the Democratic Party is the only party that meets the prerequisite to nominate a presidential candidate, which requires 20 percent of seats in the House of Representatives or 25 percent of the popular votes. By these figures, SBY would be free to choose his running mate, either from another party or from a professional (not affiliated to any parties).
Though SBY has announced that a coalition is still required by his party, it will be much more limited than the one that exists in the current administration. Rumors say the candidates likely to be picked by the Democratic Party are either Akbar Tandjung, the former Golkar Party chairman, or Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the current acting coordinating minister for economic affairs and the finance minister.
In a talk show aired by Metro TV on April 11, 2009, Bonny Hargens, a political analyst, suggested Golkar would be an opposition party for the next five years. That would be a painful for Golkar, considering they have never been in opposition before. Golkar and JK face tough choices.
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Serpong, 12 April 2009
Titus J.
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